How-To Guides

Ask a marketing manager how their last promotion performed and you’ll hear about entries, impressions, and social engagement. Ask them what it cost to acquire each incremental customer and the room goes quiet. That silence is costing Australian brands millions every year — not because their promotions don’t work, but because they can’t prove which ones do.

According to Marketing Week research, over a third of marketers rarely or never measure the ROI of their marketing spend. In Australia specifically, IAB research from 2026 found that 35% of marketers struggle to demonstrate incrementality from their campaigns. We’re running promotions worth hundreds of thousands of dollars and then guessing whether they worked.

This guide is for the marketing manager who’s tired of presenting entry counts to a CFO who wants dollar figures. It’s a practical framework for measuring promotional ROI that actually stands up to financial scrutiny.

Why Entry Counts Tell You Almost Nothing

The typical post-campaign report for a promotional campaign reads something like this: 42,000 entries, 3.2 million social impressions, 18% increase in web traffic during the campaign period.

None of those numbers answer the only question that matters: did this promotion generate more revenue than it cost?

Entry counts measure participation, not purchase behaviour. A competition that attracts 50,000 entries from existing customers who would have bought anyway hasn’t driven any incremental revenue. Meanwhile, a smaller promotion that converts 2,000 new customers to their first purchase might be ten times more valuable.

Entry counts are to promotions what follower counts are to social media — they feel important in the moment but they measure attention, not value.

The problem compounds over time. When you report vanity metrics, you optimise for vanity metrics. Your next campaign gets designed to maximise entries rather than revenue, and the gap between marketing activity and business outcomes grows wider with every campaign cycle.

What Does Promotional ROI Actually Look Like?

Real promotional ROI is deceptively simple in theory: net revenue generated by the promotion, minus the total cost of running it, divided by that total cost. Multiply by 100 and you have a percentage.

The formula isn’t hard. What’s hard is getting honest numbers into it.

The Incrementality Problem

Here’s where most measurement frameworks collapse. To know what revenue your promotion generated, you need to know what would have happened without it. This is the incrementality question, and it’s the single biggest gap in how Australian brands measure promotional performance.

Say you run a purchase-to-enter promotion on a product line that’s been growing at 8% year-on-year. During the promotional period, sales jump 15%. Did the promotion drive a 15% lift? A 7% lift above the baseline trend? Or was there a seasonal factor that would have driven growth anyway?

Without a control group or a credible baseline, you’re guessing. And according to a 2026 industry survey, 33% of brand marketers say they’re only measuring incrementality at a basic level, with 44% citing concerns about accuracy and 41% pointing to limited tools. This isn’t a knowledge problem — it’s an infrastructure problem.

How to Measure Your Next Promotion’s Real ROI

Here’s a practical framework that doesn’t require a PhD in econometrics or a six-figure analytics platform. It requires discipline, which is harder to buy.

Step 1: Define Your Success Metric Before You Brief Anyone

Before you write a creative brief, answer this: what commercial outcome are you trying to drive? New customer acquisition? Basket size increase? Repeat purchase rate? Category switching?

Each of these requires different measurement approaches. A promotion designed to acquire new customers should be measured on cost per new customer acquired and their subsequent purchase behaviour. A basket-builder promotion should be measured on average transaction value during and after the campaign.

Most promotional briefs define success as “generate awareness and engagement.” That’s not a commercial objective — it’s an excuse not to be measured. Define the number you’re going to report to your CFO before you design the mechanic.

Step 2: Count the Real Cost, Not Just Media Spend

Promotional ROI calculations routinely understate costs by 30–50% because they only count media spend. Your real promotional cost includes the prize pool or reward value, creative production and agency fees, platform or technology costs, permit and compliance costs (in Australia, state-based trade promotion permits alone can run $2,000–$5,000), internal team hours — yes, the three weeks your brand manager spent managing this counts — and fulfilment and logistics for physical prizes.

If your CFO ran the same numbers with fully loaded costs, would your promotion still look profitable? Do the maths before they do.

Step 3: Build a Control Group — It’s Easier Than You Think

You don’t need a randomised controlled trial to measure incrementality. You need a reasonable comparison. Three practical approaches work well for promotional campaigns.

Geographic holdout. Run the promotion in all states except one, then compare sales performance. This works well for national brands with consistent distribution across Australia.

Matched customer cohorts. If you have a customer database, compare the purchase behaviour of participants against a matched group of non-participants with similar purchase histories. Platforms like Trudy can automate this comparison by connecting promotional participation data with sales outcomes in real time.

Pre/post with baseline adjustment. Compare your promotional period against the same period last year, adjusted for known factors like distribution changes, pricing shifts, and category growth rates. This is the least rigorous option but infinitely better than no comparison at all.

The point isn’t methodological perfection. It’s having any credible baseline at all.

Step 4: Measure What Happens After the Campaign Ends

The most overlooked dimension of promotional ROI is what happens in the 90 days after the promotion closes. Did new customers come back? Did basket sizes stay elevated? Did the promotional discount reset price expectations downward?

A promotion that generates a 20% sales lift during the campaign but creates a 10% dip in the following quarter hasn’t driven growth — it’s pulled forward demand. Measuring the post-promotional period is what separates rigorous ROI analysis from a highlight reel.

Track these three post-campaign metrics as a minimum: repeat purchase rate among new customers acquired during the promotion, average transaction value in the 90 days following the campaign versus the 90 days prior, and category sales trajectory — did you return to baseline, exceed it, or dip below it?

Why Doesn’t Every Brand Do This?

If measurement is this straightforward, why do 74% of marketers report abandoning or scaling back campaigns because they lacked confidence in measuring impact?

Three reasons, all fixable.

First, incentives are misaligned. Marketing teams are often rewarded for activity — campaigns launched, entries generated, content produced — rather than commercial outcomes. When your KPIs are vanity metrics, measuring real ROI feels like a threat rather than an opportunity.

Second, data lives in silos. Promotional data sits in one system, sales data in another, customer data in a third. Connecting participation to purchase requires integration that many brands haven’t invested in. This is exactly the infrastructure gap that promotional analytics platforms like those Trevor Services builds are designed to close — connecting the dots between who entered your promotion and what they bought afterwards.

Third, measurement feels like an audit. Nobody wants to discover their campaign didn’t work. But the alternative — never knowing — is worse. The brands that measure rigorously don’t just cut underperforming campaigns. They double down on what works, and their promotional spend compounds in effectiveness year after year.

The CFO Test: Can Your Report Survive Five Minutes?

Here’s the standard your promotional measurement should meet: could you walk into your CFO’s office with this report and defend the spend?

If your post-campaign report wouldn’t survive five minutes of financial scrutiny, it’s not a report — it’s a press release for internal consumption. Marketing credibility is built one honest number at a time.

Stop measuring what’s easy. Start measuring what matters. Your promotional budget will be the last line item the CFO questions rather than the first — and that’s worth more than any entry count.

Ready to build a measurement framework that connects your promotions to commercial outcomes? Get in touch with Trevor Services.

Last year, a national snack brand launched a purchase-to-enter prize draw across 4,000 supermarket stores in Australia. Big budget. Slick creative. A car as the hero prize. They got 11,000 entries. For context, a well-run scratch-and-win for a mid-tier beverage brand we worked with the same quarter pulled 340,000. Same channel. A fraction of the media spend.

The difference wasn’t luck. It was mechanics, compliance planning, and a fundamental misunderstanding of what actually makes people enter a trade promotion. Most trade promotions in Australia don’t fail because the prize isn’t exciting enough. They fail because nobody thought hard enough about the friction between seeing the offer and completing an entry.

What Is a Trade Promotion, Really?

A trade promotion is a campaign where consumers get the chance to win something — typically in exchange for buying a product, visiting a store, or completing an action like uploading a receipt or answering a question. In Australia, they’re regulated under federal Australian Consumer Law and a patchwork of state-specific lottery and gaming legislation that hasn’t been meaningfully updated since some of these states still had separate banking systems.

The formats are familiar: instant-win, purchase-to-enter prize draws, skill-based competitions (“tell us in 25 words or less”), and gamified digital experiences. But here’s the thing most briefs get wrong — the format isn’t a creative decision. It’s a strategic and legal one. Pick the wrong mechanic and you’ll spend eight weeks chasing permits for a campaign that should have been structured as a game of skill in the first place.

Skill vs. Chance: The Decision That Shapes Everything

Every trade promotion in Australia falls into one of two buckets: game of skill or game of chance. This isn’t a technicality. It determines whether you need permits, which states you can run in, how quickly you can launch, and how much your legal costs will be.

A game of skill — photo contests, creative submissions, questions requiring genuine knowledge — doesn’t require permits anywhere in Australia. That’s a significant advantage. You can go from brief to live in weeks, not months.

A game of chance — prize draws, instant-win, scratch-and-reveal, spin-the-wheel — may require permits depending on your target states and total prize pool. And “may” is doing a lot of work in that sentence, because the rules vary state by state in ways that will make your procurement team’s head spin.

Here’s my take, and not everyone agrees with this: if your campaign objective is engagement and data capture rather than pure sales uplift, default to a game of skill. You’ll move faster, spend less on compliance, and the entries you get will be higher quality because participants had to actually do something. The brands chasing volume through low-friction prize draws often end up with a database full of competition junkies who’ll never buy their product again.

The Permit Maze: Why National Campaigns Need State-by-State Thinking

Australia doesn’t have a single national permit for trade promotions. Instead, you’re dealing with a federation of rules that would make a constitutional lawyer weep. If you’re running a national campaign involving a game of chance, here’s what you’re navigating as of 2026:

NSW requires a permit from Fair Trading when your total prize pool exceeds $10,000. South Australia requires a lottery licence from Consumer and Business Services for most games of chance. The ACT needs a permit from Access Canberra when you’re above $3,000 in total prizes.

Victoria, Queensland, WA, Tasmania, and the NT generally don’t require permits — but “don’t require permits” doesn’t mean “don’t have rules.” You still need to comply with their fair trading and consumer protection laws, and getting that wrong can be just as expensive.

The practical implication: allow at least 14 business days for permit processing, but if you’re running nationally, start six to eight weeks out. This is exactly the kind of compliance workload that Trevor Services takes off your plate — we manage permit applications across every jurisdiction so your team can focus on the creative and media strategy instead of paperwork.

Your T&Cs Are the Structural Engineering of Your Campaign

Terms and conditions are invisible when done right and catastrophic when done wrong. They’re also, without exception, the most common source of consumer complaints and regulatory scrutiny in Australian trade promotions.

And yet, I’ve lost count of the number of campaigns where the T&Cs were drafted the week before launch by someone in legal who’d never run a promotion. Here’s a rule that will save you grief: draft your T&Cs before you finalise creative. The terms should drive the mechanics, not the other way around. If you change the mechanic after your T&Cs are lodged with a permit authority, you may need to reapply — and that timeline you’d already committed to the retailer? Gone.

Your T&Cs need to nail the basics: who can enter, how they enter, what the prizes are (with specific retail values — “a trip to Bali” is not a prize description, it’s a lawsuit waiting to happen), how winners are selected, how and when they’re notified, your privacy collection statement, and every applicable permit number. Miss any of these and you’re exposed.

How Does Purchase-to-Enter Actually Work in Australia?

Purchase-to-enter remains the most popular trade promotion mechanic in Australia because it does something no other format does as cleanly: it ties your promotional investment directly to the register. Consumer buys product, submits proof of purchase, enters the draw. The sales attribution is nearly airtight.

But the compliance requirements are more nuanced than most marketing teams realise. The purchase price must reflect normal retail value — you can’t inflate it to fund your prize pool. In Victoria, if a purchase is required, the entry cost component can’t exceed one dollar. Phone entry nationally must stay under 50 cents plus GST. Postal entry can’t exceed standard postage.

Many brands now offer a free entry method alongside the purchase pathway. It’s not always legally required, but it’s almost always strategically smart. Counter-intuitively, adding a free entry path often increases purchase entries — it signals that the promotion is legitimate and fair, which reduces the psychological barrier to participating. Platforms like Trudy from Trevor Services automate receipt validation and entry management for these campaigns, which matters when you’re processing tens of thousands of entries and need the data to be clean enough to actually learn from.

The Measurement Gap Nobody Talks About

Here’s what frustrates me about how most brands run trade promotions: they’ll spend $200,000 on a campaign and then measure success by counting total entries. That’s like measuring a restaurant’s success by counting how many people walked past the window.

The metrics that actually matter are incremental sales uplift during the promotion period, conversion rate from impression to entry, cost per acquisition, new-to-brand customer percentage, and — critically — what those entrants did in the 90 days after the promotion ended. Did they come back? Did they buy at full price? Or did they vanish the moment the prize draw closed?

Real-time analytics change the game here because they let you adjust while the promotion is still live. If entries are tracking below forecast in week two, you can shift media spend, extend the promotion, or troubleshoot a broken entry mechanic before you’ve burned through your entire budget. Trevor Services builds real-time dashboards into every campaign for exactly this reason — the brands that optimise mid-flight consistently outperform the ones that wait for the post-campaign report.

Five Mistakes That Kill Trade Promotions

After years of running and auditing trade promotions across Australia, the failure patterns are remarkably consistent.

Starting permits too late. Processing times aren’t negotiable. If your permit isn’t approved before launch day, you can’t legally go live in that state. Full stop.

Vague prize descriptions. “Win a trip to Bali” without specifying flights, accommodation, dates, travel insurance, spending money, and whether it includes airport transfers is not a prize — it’s a complaint waiting to happen.

Ignoring unclaimed prizes. Most states require an unclaimed prize draw within three months. Your T&Cs must outline this process and you must actually do it. The number of brands that forget this step is genuinely alarming.

Choosing the wrong mechanic for the audience. A 60-second video submission contest sounds creative in the brief. For a time-poor parent grabbing snacks at Woolworths, it’s an impossibly high barrier. Match the effort to the context.

Not retaining records. Keep everything — entries, winner details, permits, T&Cs, advertising materials — for at least 12 months after the promotion ends. Some states require longer. If you can’t produce records when asked, the regulator assumes the worst.

The Bottom Line

Running a great trade promotion in Australia isn’t about having the biggest prize or the flashiest creative. It’s about reducing friction, getting the compliance right from day one, choosing a mechanic that matches how your audience actually behaves, and measuring what matters — not just what’s easy to count.

The brands that consistently win at this treat their promotional partner the way they treat their media agency: as a strategic input, not a vendor who processes paperwork. If your last campaign’s entry data is sitting in a spreadsheet nobody’s opened, that’s the gap worth closing. Talk to Trevor Services about what your next campaign could look like.